Russians capture Berkhivka and Yahidne.
This will be just a short article since its a developing story, but big news nonetheless since it signals the battle of Bakhmut turning into a disaster for the Ukrainians
In just the last 4 days the situation for the Ukrainians have turned from terrible, to a catastrophe. I reported on the fact that Wagner forces entered Berkhivka and Yahidne 4 days ago. But I did not expect for both villages to fall this quickly. Both villages are now confirmed to be under Wagner/Russian control.
Just for a small recap to explain why these villages are important. With the capture of Berkhivka, the road between Bakhmut and Slovyansk (major city commanding the Donbas front) is cut, meaning no supply, communication, or retreating troops can move there.
Yahidne is also important since with the fall of that town, it is the only town or settlement to the last road which runs from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut, once that is cut, Ukrainian troops stuck in Bakhmut will have no where to go and could turn into another Mariupol style situation.
You can quite clearly see the advancements made in the past 4 days. Wagner has managed to penetrate 2 km (1.3 miles) into the west flank of Bakhmut, with some reports of fire control over the last road going to Chasiv Yar (just rumors of course).
I am still in shock at how Zelensky and the Ukrainian staff have no fully pulled out of Bakhmut yet. From how the situation is developing and where the frontline is on the map, you would think it would be a good time to pull out now to prevent the 5-15k Ukrainian troops left in the city from being encircled.
But one must realize as well that Zelensky has repeatedly told his people and Westerners that Bakhmut would not fall. So letting it fall to the Russians would be a huge morale hit to not only the Ukrainian army and people, but a realignment of thinking by Westerners as more people would being to question. “Can Russia be stopped?” “Can Ukraine really win this war?”. You can see the attitude has shifted a lot in the past 3 months from “Ukraine can recapture Melitopol, and push to Crimea, we just need to give them the weapons they need!” to “Maybe it would be best if Ukraine gets a ceasefire.”
As you see the fall of Bakhmut and the Russians slowly make their advances towards the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk lines, where the real fighting and turning point of the war will start.
Black is current frontlines, red is the last defensive, fortification line that Ukraine has left. Once the Russians manage to break that red line, all of the Donbas will be liberated and it will just be open fields where the Russians can use their massive armored units and aircraft to pick off Ukrainians in the field. I would probably estimate that the Russians at the current rate will break the red line by the start of Summer (if something big does not happen by then).